Service Plays Sunday 1/4/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SportsInsights

NFL Wild Card Weekend - Games to Watch (0-0 = 0.0%)

The NFL Playoffs are a totally different animal than the NFL Regular season. The amount of “Public” square bets skyrockets. The culmination of this trend is the Super Bowl, the most wagered sporting event of the year. Everyone, and their mother, wagers on the Super Bowl. From the casual “box-office-pool” – to the professional sports bettor – to the Superbowl commercials: everyone has some interest in the Superbowl.

For value-minded sports investors, this massive influx of “Public” money means opportunity. During the NFL Playoffs, odds makers heavily weigh Public opinion when deciding on a game’s betting line. They’ll shade a line 2-3 pts knowing that the Public will be heavily on one side. “Public Money” dwarfs the amount of “Sharp Money” buying back the shaded lines.


Philadelphia Eagles vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Philadelphia Eagles made the playoffs in dramatic fashion. They needed help (a LOT of help!) -- to make their game with Dallas meaningful last week. The Eagles got help with some big upsets in the early (1PM) games -- and then took care of business, demolishing the Dallas Cowboys at home 44-6. The Eagles finished the season on a 4-1 run and the Public is taking notice. A huge 81% of bets are landing on the Eagles, and our readers know what this means: we want to "Bet Against the Public" and bet against the Eagles.

The huge number of Public bets on Philly is giving us some additional value. The line opened at Minnesota +3 -110 but you can now get Minny -3 at +110. The line may even tick up to +3.5 with the constant barrage of Philly bets. Let's "bet against the Public" and sell the Eagles at a high -- after their exciting stretch run to make the playoffs, capped off by their huge win over Dallas. We also like this match-up because Minnesota is a "home dog" that quietly made the playoffs with a 10-6 record. Take the points and expect the Eagles to come back to earth.

Play On Minnesota Vikings +3

Games to Watch - Playoff Editions (0-0 = 0.0%)
Minnesota Vikings +3
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bettorsworld

3* Ravens -3 -125 - This was the game that stood out to us when the Wildcard matchups were announced. We've had out eye on the Ravens down the stretch and they haven't disappointed. The defense of course, has been very impressive over the 2nd half of the season. We're specifically looking at the last 8 games of the season. The Giants did a number on the Ravens scoring 30 points in the process but no one else scored more than 13. Ok, the Cowboys scored 24 points but don't forget that was a 16-7 Ravens lead after 3 quarters before both teams scored 17 in the wacky 4th quarter. But remember too, the opponent this week is the Dolphins. They don't possess the weapons on offense that either the Cowboys or Giants do.

When you have been handicapping football for as long as this handicapper has, you come to appreciate a defense like the Ravens and just what it means to a team come this time of year. What makes the Ravens even more attractive right now is that they are not a one trick pony. They actually have an offense to go along with the defense. Let's take a look at some numbers that should open some eyes.

Those of you that have been with us any length of time know we love the yards per point stat. We have been using that number for over 25 years to handicap football games and while the teams change every year, the numbers don't. It's a complete snap shot of a teams ability on both sides of the ball. In short, the lower the offensive number, the better the offense and the higher the defensive number, the better the defense. The Ravens numbers over the 2nd half of the season are comparable to any Super Bowl teams numbers over the last 25 years. You can look at theses numbers and very accurately figure who at least has a shot a making some noise in the playoffs and who has no shot. The Ravens have a very real shot. The Dolphins have no shot. Let's dig a little deeper.



Over the last 8 games the Ravens have an offensive ypp number of 12 and a defensive number of 20.6. Fantastic on both sides of the ball. The Dolphins have a below average number on offense of 15.6 and a decent number of 16.6 defensively. Put another way, in 25 years of handicapping games, teams with an offensive number of 15.6 don't often beat teams with a defensive number of 20.6. They simply don't figure to be able to put many points on the board. Another eye popping figure is Miami's ypp number at home over the course of the entire season. It's an anemic 18.6 which is beyond atrocious. An 18.6 offense doesn't figure to score at all against a 20.6 defense.

Hats off to the Dolphins for the job they have done this year. To go from 1-15 to 11-5 is remarkable. They did it by not beating themselves. They don't take stupid penalties and they don't throw games away. They don't turn the ball over and win by playing near perfect fundamental football. But if you zero in on the Dolphins schedule, you can find some question marks, and hey, why not, a 1-15 team from the previous year is supposed to play a weak schedule the following year.

Start with the Seattle game November 9th. Miami squeaked by a bad Seattle team 21-19. They were lucky to beat the Raiders 17-15. They were blown away by the Pats. Barely got by the hapless Rams 16-12. Squeaked by the 49ers 14-9. Gave up a mind boggling 31 points in an uncharacteristic 38-31 shootout with the Chiefs and then managed to get by a Jets team that quite frankly wasn't very good to seal the deal.

Again, credit Miami for winning. A win is a win. They deserve to be here. It just looks as if they are outclassed in this one. These two teams played back in October and the Ravens won 27-13. The Dolphins are pretty much the same team as they were in October. The Ravens are without question, a better team than they were back in October.

Midnight comes early for Cinderella on Sunday. 3* Ravens -3 -125 over Dolphins
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bettorsworld

2* Vikings +3 over Eagles - This years Wildcard games are unique in that all 4 home teams are underdogs. As rare as that is, what would be even more rare would be for all for road favs to win and cover. You just know that at least one home team, maybe more, is going to treat the home crowd to a playoff win. The only home team that would shock us if they won outright is the Dolphins. The Chargers, Cards and Vikings all have good sots at winning. Heck, you play all year for the right to host a home playoff game. It has to mean something to be home for these teams.

Considering we have a small play on the Colts, and an opinion on the Falcons, and considering we have our biggest play on the Ravens, if we're going to back a home team at this point, it's going to have to be the Vikings. Before digging into this game we anticpated that we'd be siding with the Eagles. I suppose the blowout of the Cowboys left a lasting impression, which is always one of the traps in betting football. Most bettors have short memories and only recall the most recent events. There was a little more to our impression than that. The win over the Giants also stuck with us.

But as we dug a little deeper into this game we saw that perhaps the Vikings were a good candidate to be the home dog that stepped up to the plate this weekend. When we broke down the 2nd half of the season for these two teams we were a little surprised at the numbers. The Eagles yards per point numbers over their final 8 games were 13.5 on offense and 14.7 on defense. The Vikes were a 12.9 offensively and a 15.4 defensively. Both teams numbers offensively were fine, but both were below average defensively and very un-playoff like. Again, this is using the ypp numbers over the 2nd half of the season. Both teams were top 10 in defensive categories that you see thrown around on stat sheets and such, but those numbers don't always tell the whole story.

The Vikings have been consistent all year long. They have one loss of their 6 losses that was by more than a touchdown and that was a 30-17 setback to the Titans. With the Eagles, you're not sure what you're going to get. Are you going to get the team that blew out the Cowboys or dominated the Giants a few weeks ag or are you going to get the team that lost toe the Redskins and tied the Bengals?

The Eagles are certainly capable of beating any team in the NFL on any given day and before digging into this game our feeling was that if the Vikings had trouble with an NFC East team just playing out their season last week, then they'd certainly struggle against an NFC East team in a playoff game. But sometimes you have to play it by the numbers. The numbers say this one has the potential to be very close game. The outcome figures to be in doubt as we head down the stretch in the 4th quarter, in which case we'll gladly take +3 with the home team. 2* Vikings +3 over Eagles.
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kevin Kavitch The regular season picks finished with a monitored 52-37-2 result.

Baltimore comes into the playoffs winning 5 of their last 6 (one close loss to Pittsburgh). Flacco's quick development has led to a well balanced offense and it's a dangerous combination with their killer defense. It's no surprise that they're on a 9-2 run considering Flacco's quick learning and a rushing attack that has produced 110+ yards on the ground in EVERY ONE of those games. That's impressive and they're built for playoff football. As I mentioned in the Week 17 pick on Baltimore, they are the dark horse of the playoffs to me. They are fundamentally very solid and have upside to break games open. Miami has impressed me as well and it's no surprise they're in the playoffs winning 9 of 10. But they haven't dominated opponents like Baltimore has, Pennington doesn't have the big cannon to stretch the field as much as some QBs, and they've shown vulnerabilities on defense vs the run and pass. As a general rule I'm not a fan of away favorites but I'll lay -3 with a team I think has a legitimate shot to make it to the Super Bowl. Take Baltimore -3 for a 4* Regular Play.
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[mookin]

James Betting Expert

Sunday, January 4, 2008

Philadelphia Eages vs Minnesota Vikings

100 Unit NFL Release

8-2 Record 100 Unit NFL Release in 2008 NFL season!

We didn't need the points yesterday with Ole Miss as we picked up our 12th 100 Unit release of the NCAAFB season in 13 tries! We will not need the points tomorrow for our 100 Unit NFL Release as the Vikings place host to the Eagles! Take the Vikings ML (+150) Matchbook.

Analysis and Write-up available at 2:00 PM EST tomorrow (Jan. 4)

 

[SteveMcQueen]

Raging Bull Handicappers

Soccer:

Real Madrid/Villarreal o3 -110 (Spain La Liga)

Manchester United/Southampton o2.5 -155 (English FA Cup)

 

[mookin]

ncaaf/nfl....got it..sorry....

Yeah i believe that they are 8-2 in NFL and are 12-1 in NCAA

 

[HarleyRoadKing]

Sports Network

There is an easy frame of reference to point to in analyzing this matchup, since Baltimore went to Miami and earned a fairly easy 27-13 victory in Week 7. The Dolphins have improved since then, but so have the Ravens, who are moving the ball offensively and also making their requisite big plays on defense. A major reason for Miami's resurgence has been their affinity for avoiding turnovers, but Pennington is going to have a difficult time avoiding miscues against a Baltimore team that leads the league in picks. In addition, Pennington won't get quite enough help from the running game against a Ravens front seven that doesn't give up much ground. On the other side of the ball, Flacco has stood up to nearly every challenge he's faced this year, and the unflappable youngster will impress the masses once more by putting up a gutty display in his first career postseason foray.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Ravens 23, Dolphins 13


These are two teams that got hot down the stretch by playing excellent defense, and the high stakes involved in this matchup could lead to both coaches playing it rather close to the vest in a low-scoring affair. The one that's successful in neutralizing the other's strength -- namely, the Eagles' passing game and the Vikings' rushing attack -- should be the one that survives. If that's the case, Philadelphia seems to be more equipped to prevent Peterson from running wild than Minnesota is to get a battle-tested McNabb out of his late-season groove. The Eagles have simply been a little bit better than the Vikings over the last month, and Philly's playoff experience should come in handy in what figures to be a tough environment.

Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Eagles 20, Vikings 13

 

[HarleyRoadKing]

Bill Simmons
ESPN Page 2 Writer

Ravens
Vikings

 

[tannguyen94]

Steven Budin-CEO

Steven Budin-CEO
SUNDAY'S PICK
50 DIME

PHILADELPHIA

Note From Steve Budin:
Philadelphia is a solid -3 as this play is released.
If you have Philadelphia -3, I suggest you buy down the 1/2 point to -2 1/2 so you get the win should Philadelphia win by three.
If for some reason you get Philadelphia at -3 1/2 - even after shopping around - buy down the 1/2 point to -3 so you get the push should Philadelphia only prevail by a field goal.
Take it from a former bookmaker and the guy who fathered the offshore sportsbook industry that too many gamblers and handicappers needlessly buy half points on all types of numbers. But the ONLY number that matters from a bookmaker's perspective is 3 because of overtime and that's why its the only number they (bookmakers) charge the extra juice for. Once again, we're using the power of money - our bulging bankroll - against the bookmaker in this case.
Why not buy a little extra insurance at a few cents on the dollar to protect your investment? As CEO of a multi-million dollar company I can tell you it's the right move, just like I knew it was the right move when as a bookmaker I saw smart players doing the same thing when the opportunity presented itself.

 

[tannguyen94]

Doc's sports

4 Unit Play. #42 Take Philadelphia Eagles -3 over Minnesota Vikings

 

[Mr.BlueSky]

Lang is on philly for 25 dimes I believe


Tough loss with the Colts tonight, it was my biggest bet in 3 fuckin weeks

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JOHNNY GUILD


Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m. BALTIMORE-2.5

Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings, 4:30 p.m. PHILADELPHIA-2.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NELLY'S SPORTSLINE

Baltimore (-3) MIAMI (37) 12:00 PM
Although Atlanta and Miami have had more publicity the turnaround
for the Ravens has been truly remarkable. Even when the Ravens
won the Super Bowl the offense was not this consistently effective
and although the history for QBs making initial playoff starts is ugly,
rookie QB Flacco has exceeded all other expectations and assumed
limitations. The key for the Ravens has been developing a strong
running game, averaging nearly 150 yards per game and the
offense has not missed a beat on the road, averaging over 25 points
per game, more than the Ravens scored in home games. Although
Miami has impressively won several close games to create an
incredible turnaround season the history for teams completing such
a turnaround and excelling in the playoffs the next year is not a
strong one. Miami takes great care of the ball and often has
dominated field position but the Dolphins have allowed nearly 70
more yards per game than the Ravens and Baltimore’s rush defense
has been incredibly dominant allowing just 81 yards per game.
Miami actually closed the season being out-gained in yardage each
of the final three games and although Miami has the playoff
experience edge on offense with QB Pennington, the Ravens
defense has been here before and is hungry from an early playoff
exit in 2006-07. Despite going 11-5, Miami was just 8-8 ATS and
struggled against several bad teams on the season while Baltimore
went 12-4 ATS and the five S/U losses came against the Titans,
Giants, Colts, and the Steelers, a group of teams that most would
call the four best teams in the league entering the playoffs.
Baltimore beat Miami 27-13 in this stadium in week 7 and the
rushing edge was dramatic for the Ravens. Baltimore may be a bit
overvalued here given the road venue and the unproven players on
offense but this Miami group has never been in the playoffs aside
from a few players that have transferred to the team. Both teams
have rookie head coaches making this perhaps the toughest call of
the weekend but the Ravens have the more impressive showing on
the whole this season and the superior defense in a match-up of two
offenses that could off-set each other. RAVENS 23-17

RATING 1: BALTIMORE (-3)
RATING 2: ‘OVER 37’






Philadelphia (-3) MINNESOTA (42) 3:30 PM
The Eagles needed a lot of things to fall together to make the
playoffs and everything that needed to happen came through.
Philadelphia has been an up-and-down team this season with
several outstanding games and several dud games but the Eagles
are a dangerous team in the postseason. This might normally be a
tough spot to go on the road after a miraculous clinching of a playoff
spot and a huge dominant win over a division rival but Minnesota
had just as much drama with a last second win to clinch the division
and enter the playoffs after failing in week 16 at home in a similar
spot. The Vikings have had several narrow wins this season and
have caught some fortune with big plays on defense and special
teams. Minnesota was 1-4 ATS against playoff teams this season
and failed ATS in three of the last four home games this season.
The QB situation for Minnesota is not ideal with cast aside starter
Jackson taking over the final 3½ games while veteran starter
Frerotte was the starter most of the year. What happens this week is
not clear and either way the offense has not shown consistent
success. RB Peterson has posted huge numbers but he has had
fumble problems and the Eagles will counter with a very strong
defense that will put a lot of pressure on the QB. Philadelphia QB
McNabb has had an interesting season but he has proven himself in
big games and has more playoff experience than anyone on the
Vikings. The coaching match-up is also intriguing as Minnesota
coach Childress was an assistant under Andy Reid but this will be
his first playoff game with the Vikings. Statistically the Eagles have
been better on offense and defense and have played a tougher
schedule while Minnesota is scoring only 21 points per game at
home this year. The Vikings are a tough team to back in a big game
as they nearly fumbled away a division title that was handed to them
and also nearly lost to the 0-16 Lions twice. Philadelphia has been a
strong road team in recent years while the recent playoff history and
history at home for the Vikings is very poor. EAGLES 21-14

RATING 2: PHILADELPHIA (-3)
RATING 3: ‘UNDER 42’



SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
PLAY ON: Any NFL playoff team that scored 40 or more
points in the final regular season game.
PLAY ON: Philadelphia
7-1, 85.7% since 2000

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MAC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK


AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK


PLAY AGAINST any sub .700 NFL playoff team off a win of 20 or more points versus an opponent off an ATS loss.

Play Against:
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES


Sunday, January 4th
MIAMI over Baltimore by 3
What a terrifi c turnaround by the Dolphins this season. From a onewin
blunder to an eleven-win wonder, they proved the acquisition
of a proven winner at quarterback (Chad Pennington) and a competent
coaching staff can do wonders. Sure, the Fish won 7 of their eleven games
by a touchdown or less but that’s what winning is all about, triumphing
against all odds regardless of the margin. After dropping a 27-13 loss to the
Ravens here as 3-point favorites in Game Six of the season, Miami went on to
win 9 of its fi nal ten games to conclude the season. Meanwhile the Ravens,
who like Miami fi nished in last place in their division last season, also enter
today’s fray on a winning run with 9 wins in their last eleven games. They
made their mark this season against sub .666 opposition, though, going 11-
1 SU and ATS. When paired against .666 or greater competition the Black
Birds were 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. It’s interesting to note that playoff teams
who own the same or a better win percentage than their favored opponent
are 16-9 SU and 19-5-1 ATS in postseason play since 1980. We like veteran
Pennington’s chances to avenge the aforementioned loss suffered here
earlier this season against the rookies (coach John Harbaugh and QB Joe
Flacco). Shades of Crockett and Tubbs – it’s Miami nice.



Sunday, January 4th
MINNESOTA over Philadelphia by 1
Now that was impressive. Given new life just minutes before kickoff
against Dallas last week, the Eagles devoured the Cowboys to gain
entrance into this year’s playoff party. They now become the team no one
wants to face. Possessing a Top 10 ranked offense and defense, Philly gains
76 YPG more than they allow – better than any team in the playoffs this
season! Our problem in making a case for them is two-fold: (1) they are just
1-6 SU on the playoff road, and (2) our AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
on page 2. Toss in a 1-8 ATS mark as playoff favorites off a win against an
opponent off a win and you can understand our concern. In the meantime,
Minnesota is another playoff dog with an equal or better win percentage
(see Miami writeup on the facing page). The Vikings counter with the
league’s 6th best defense and will take the fi eld knowing they are 14-3 ATS
as home dogs of more than 2 points versus an opponent off a SU and ATS
win. They key to this contest will be Minny’s success, or lack of the same,
running the ball. If Philadelphia can stuff their 5th ranked rush offense
that’s averaged 168 RYPG the last three weeks, they will force the Vikes to
beat them via the air – and that’s not likely to happen. Adrian Peterson to
the rescue!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE SPORTS MEMO


NFC WILD CARD
PHILADELPHIA AT MINNESOTA +3
O/U 42
Recommendation: Minnesota
Situational - The Vikings won six of their eight home games this season yet find themselves installed as a three-point underdog to a Philly team that won just three road tilts all year. Fundamental - When the Vikings aren’t turning the ball over they have a potent offensive attack. Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor combined for over 2,000 rushing yards and 14 TDs and Bernard Berrian has provided a deep threat in the passing game at over 20 yards per catch. It presents an interesting matchup against a Philly defense than finished the season ranked fourth or better in every major statistical
category. Game Notes - Since his benching at Baltimore, Donovan McNabb responded with nine TD passes against just one INT in the Eagles’ final five games (4-1 SU). Final Take - The Vikings have dramatically improved their pass defense this season giving up just 215 ypg after ranking dead last in 2007. It should be noted that the one team Philly was unable to beat down the stretch was Washington whose style and statistical profile stacks up almost identically to that of Minnesota. We’ll take the points with the Vikings and back their edges on both sides of the line of scrimmage.






AFC WILD CARD
BALTIMORE -3 AT MIAMI
O/U 37
Recommendation: Under
Situational - The Dolphins used a smothering and opportunistic defense to score a road win at New York in the final week to secure a division title. It was the second biggest one season turnaround in NFL history, winning 10 more games than in 2007. Fundamental - Defense rules the day in this wildcard matchup. The Ravens finished the regular season ranked second against the pass, third against the rush and third in points per game allowed. While the Dolphins allowed opponents to move the ball between the 20’s they finished in the top ten in points per game allowed. Miami also features the NFL’s second leading sack master in Joey Porter who racked up 17.5 on the season. Game Notes - Both teams feature a run-first mentality, ranking in the bottom third of the league in pass attempts per game. Final Take - Baltimore will likely play this game with an ultra conservative nature considering they start a rookie at QB. Expect to see the clock moving on a consistent
basis with plenty of running. And with two of the league’s stingiest defenses protecting the end zones, that type of game plan has us looking to the under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE GOLD SHEET

BALTIMORE (11-5) at MIAMI (11-5)
Sunday, January 4, 2009
TEAM SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Baltimore 11-5 12-4 24 15 149 175 42-20-16 81 180 26-4-17 13 3.6 4.8
Miami 11-5 8-8 22 20 118 227 40-18-20 101 227 33-11-18 18 .6 7.3

MIAMI 23 - Baltimore 17—Pro football playoff history is replete with
rematches from regular-season meetings. Unfortunately, history has not
provided any foolproof indicators about what might transpire in postseason
rematches. Nonetheless, a quick review of the October 19 battle between
Baltimore and Miami at Dolphin Stadium (won by the Ravens, 27-13) is in order.
The prideful Baltimore defense dictated matters, blitzing heavily to negate
the Dolphins’ unique “wildcat” formation (a mere 4 yards in 5 plays) that had
wreaked havoc with previous foes. The Raven “D” also provided the play of the
game when DE Terrell Suggs scored on a 44-yard interception, giving Baltimore
the lead for good in the 2nd Q. The Ravens surprised Miami by going uptempo,
rookie QB Joe Flacco mostly working from the no-huddle.
But the Dolphins are a different team than the one that fell to 2-4 with that
October loss. Miami has won 9 of 10 since, with ex-Jet QB Chad Pennington
gaining comfort at the helm as the season progressed. The “surprises” pulled
by Baltimore in the first meeting don’t figure to be as effective in the rematch.
And with Pennington (only 7 picks) and the Dolphin “O” almost error-free, we
doubt Miami presents the Raven “D” with another gift as it did in the first
meeting. Meanwhile, though Flacco displayed maturity beyond his years,
decided experience edges at QB are often meaningful in the postseason. If that
angle holds, advantage to Pennington and the Dolphins. TV-CBS
(08-Balt. 27-MIAMI 13...B.22-21 B.35/140 M.22/71 M.24/35/1/288 B.17/23/0/217 B.1 M.0)
(07-MIAMI 22-Balt. 16 (OT)...21-21 B.36/163 M.29/72 M.23/39/0/288 B.15/30/1/182 M.0 B.0)
(08-Baltimore +3 27-13; 07-MIAMI +3' 22-16 (OT)...SR: Miami 5-3)



PHILADELPHIA (9-6-1) at MINNESOTA (10-6)
Sunday, January 4, 2009
TEAM SUR PSR PF PA YR YP T-R-P YR YP T-R-P TO DIFF OPR
Philadelphia 9-6 10-6 26 18 106 244 45-15-23 92 182 31-7-19 3 1.7 5.2
Minnesota 10-6 6-10 24 21 146 185 41-15-22 77 216 36-10-15 -6 .1 4.9


Philadelphia 24 - MINNESOTA 16—Despite the presence of the electric
Adrian Peterson (1760 YR; but nine fumbles), there are more than enough
reasons to back the surging Eagles. Philly is 4-1 SU and vs. the spread
(outscoring foes 147-60) since the benching of Donovan McNabb Nov. 23 in
Baltimore. And in this game, the Eagles own substantial edges at HC, QB,
offensive balance, and playoff experience.
Andy Reid (Brad Childress’ boss for seven years in Philly) has coached the
Eagles in 14 playoff games during his tenure, never losing a playoff opener.
McNabb has looked like a smarter, quicker QB since his controversial
benching, hitting 8 TDs vs. only 1 interception. And, while Brian Westbrook
might not be 100%, he still is a constant dual threat in the backfield and is
helped out by the finally healthy Correll Buckhalter (63 YR, 3 recs. in finale vs.
Dallas). And rookie DeSean Jackson (62 recs.; nearly 15 ypc) gives the Eagles
a speedy deep threat and scary punt returner.
Vikes’ run-stuffing DT Pat Williams, out the last two games with a shoulder
injury, says he intends to return for Minny’s first playoff game since 2004 (first
at home since 2000). But it might not make much difference, as Philly went to
the air (McNabb 333 YP) in LY’s 23-16 victory in Minneapolis. And to say
Tarvaris Jackson is still a work in progress (and that Gus Frerotte is vulnerable
to the pass rush) is to say the least, especially vs. Philly’s ever-changing
defensive fronts and veteran secondary. TV-FOX
(07-Phil. 23-MINN. 16...P.22-20 M.29/105 P.26/62 P.23/36/0/323 M.14/26/0/151 P.0 M.0)
(07-Philadelphia -1 23-16...SR: EVEN 11-11)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CTO

CONFIDENTIAL TIP-OFF BASKETBALL


ORLANDO over *Toronto (NBA Day Game)...Orlando has gotten the best of Toronto in recent meetings, logging a 6-1 SU and 5-2 spread
record against the Raptors. Magic covered 10 of first 13 on the road this season, and Toronto has a 1-6 mark against the points facing “A”
teams such as Orlando. Magic “Superman” Dwight Howard won’t let Chris Bosh or Jermaine O’Neal get many free looks at the basket or
easy putbacks, and Fs Hedo Turkoglu (22 ppg vs. Toronto last 5 in series) and Rashard Lewis (21 ppg; 58% vs. Raptors last season) excel
against this foe. ORLANDO 111 - *Toronto 97 RATING - 10



EVANSVILLE over *Indiana State (Day Game)... With revitalized, well-organized E’Ville (5 starters return) off to its best start since 1994,
strongly endorse rising Aces still aching from 30-pt. clobbering on this court LY. E’Ville’s 2nd-year HC Marty Simmons (played under Bob
Knight) is reaping rewards for his extra emphasis on rebounding & defense TY, while athletic 6-4 sr. F Ely (17 ppg, 6 rpg) has elevated
squad’s offensive play. Meanwhile, Sycamores (just 67 ppg) offensively-stodgy with earlier dismissal of LY’s top scorer Stinson,
especially when sole post performer, 6-8 sr. F Tunnell, (11 ppg) is sitting on bench due to early foul trouble.
EVANSVILLE 77 - *Indiana State 67 RATING - 10

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

POINTWISE

BALTIMORE (11-5) at MIAMI (11-5)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 4 -- 1:00 PM EST -- CBS TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Baltimore .... 48.8 . 24- 15 .. 19-14 .. 149- 81 .. 176- 180 .. +13 . Baltimore
Miami .......... 45.6 . 22- 20 .. 19-19 .. 119-101 .. 215- 228 .. +17 . by 7.3 Pts
Simply amazing! Turnaround of the Dolphins is unprecedented, as they are the
1st team ever to win 10 games, directly off a 1-win season, and a playoff spot to
boot (10-game single season improvement is matched only by the '99 Colts).
The additions of Sparano & Pennington have turned it all around (Chad: 67.4% &
19/7). And check the dog currently on a 13-1 ATS run in Miami games. Ravens
represent their only '07 victim, despite a 163-72 RY edge, but they took this yr's
meeting by 14, when rookie (& vastly improved) QB Flacco was just learning the
system. Baltimore: from 5-11 to 11-5 under new coach Harbaugh. Ravens rank
2nd in total "D", & 2nd in rushing "O". Awesome Dolphin turnaround ends here.
PROPHECY: BALTIMORE 23 - Miami 13 RATING: 3





PHILADELPHIA (9-6-1) at MINNESOTA (10-6)
SUNDAY, JANUARY 4 -- 4:30 PM EST -- FOX TELEVISION
AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Philadelphia 47.9 . 26- 18 .. 20-16 .. 106- 92 .. 244- 182 .. + 3 . Phila'phia
Minnesota ... 47.5 . 24- 21 .. 18-16 .. 146- 77 .. 185- 216 .. - 6 . by 3.0 Pts
Let's see. A loss to the Giants, followed by an OT tie vs the lowly Bengals, in
which no one seemed to know that it could end in a push, & then a 36-7 blasting
loss to the Ravens, including the benching of its QB. Things certainly looked
bleak for the Eagles thru that stretch, as they stood at 5-5-1, owning the cellar of
the NFC East. But McNabb & that "D" (which has held its last 6 foes to 11 ppg)
have been brilliant ever since. Try 41 unanswered pts vs the Cowboys, to clinch
this spot. The Vikings, of course, have one of the top threats in the NFL, in the
person of Peterson, who has won the rushing title the past 2 yrs (1,760 yds this
year). And QB Jackson is finally clicking. And note that head coach Childress
was offensive coordinator of Philly thru its playoff years. Little breathing room.
PROPHECY: PHILADELPHIA 23 - Minnesota 17 RATING: 6